Dave Moenning

Looking To The Weight Of The Evidence

Stocks pulled back a bit yesterday in response to Donald Trump’s threat to shut down the government if he didn’t get his border wall. On this topic, it is important to note that (a) the government is slated to run out of money on October 1 and (b) the House has already approved $1.6 billion for the wall – but the issue appears to be problematic in the Senate.

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 is basically searching for direction. From a short-term view, stocks are in a downtrend. From an intermediate- and longer-term perspective, the trend of the stock market is in pretty good shape. The key here is that a break below Monday’s low would threaten the health of the intermediate-term trend and embolden the bears.

And with speeches from both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi on tap in Jackson Hole tomorrow, it is a decent bet that traders may not want to make any big moves today. Unless, of course, Yellen’s speech gets leaked and contains market-moving info, that is.

So, since stocks remain in a seasonally weak period, valuations are in rarified air, and we appear to have some time on our hands this morning, I thought I’d continue our discussion of the various ways investors can manage the risk of severe market declines in their portfolios.

Going Back To The Beginning

When I first entered the business in mid-1980, something called “market timing” was gaining popularity. The idea was to invest 100% of your account either in the money market or the stock market, depending of the reading of various indicators – usually moving averages. Such a concept would have helped the proponents of such strategies to avoid the difficult markets of the 1970’s, which saw the DJIA go mostly sideways for years.

I didn’t realize it at the time, but a couple things made this strategy successful. First, very few people were doing it as the mutual fund industry was in its infancy and calculating a moving average wasn’t easy, requiring a legal pad, a pencil, and a calculator. Remember, charts weren’t available on your phone back then. Heck, cell phones didn’t exist back then.

In addition, an investor could earn a VERY strong rate of return when in the “defensive” money market position. Thus, “market timing” was pretty easy when you were earning 10% annualized sitting in cash.

But as time went on, such strategies lost favor. In my opinion, this was largely due to the secular bull market that began in 1982. The mutual fund industry launched a massive campaign encouraging investors to put their money into a fund family and leave it there – forever. “Time, not timing” was the battle cry. “Be a long-term investor” was also a big theme promoted at the time. Since there wasn’t much in way of risk for nearly a decade after the Crash of ’87, the concept of risk management became laughable and “market timing” was a dirty word by the middle of the 1990’s.

So, with the public being told that no one could “time the market” (never mind the boatload of research that proved otherwise) and that such efforts were a waste of time (stocks just went up every year, so why bother?), the “buy and hold” approach became all the rage. (P.S. If this sounds similar to today’s emphasis on passive investing, give yourself a gold star!)

Thus, risk managers were scoffed at during the mid-1990’s. Risk? What risk?

However, the ensuing bear markets triggered by the bursting of the technology bubble and then the credit crisis have changed people’s point of view on the subject – in a big way. Thus, risk management is now an important part of many investors’ portfolios.

The trick is the figure out a way to reduce one’s exposure to market risk when the bears are in town and to “make hay while the sun shines” the rest of the time. Simple enough, right?

So far in this series, we’ve talked about BlackRock’s approach, which entails the use of low volatility vehicles, as well as the idea of diversifying your portfolio by employing multiple risk management strategies. Today, let’s keep moving and talk about one of my favorite strategies to risk management.

The Exposure Method

The goal of what I call the “exposure method” is to keep one’s exposure to market risk in sync with the “state of the market.” When the market is healthy, you want to be onboard the bull train and enjoy the ride. Then as conditions weaken over time, as they often do during long bull market runs, you reduce your exposure to risk accordingly.

The challenge, of course, is finding a way to accomplish this goal. The bottom line is there are many approaches to this strategy. My take on the subject is to employ a diversified approach by using multiple indicators and/or models, with each controlling a set portion of the exposure.

For example, if I have 10 market indicators, I can assign each indicator a 10% weighting. When all 10 are positive, I’m 100% long. But as indicators flip to red, the exposure gets reduced. For example, if 3 indicators are negative, I’d be 70% long and 30% in cash, etc.

Of course, the real key to this method is the indicator selection and weighting. To be sure, there are a myriad of ways to do this – and trust me, I’ve played with a great many over the years!

What I’ve found is that a combination of trend, momentum, sentiment, and “external” factors can be a pretty good guide to the health of the market. In fact, I publish the readings of these indicators every Monday in my weekly indicator review. Here’s a link to this week’s edition.

To illustrate the concept further, below is an example of an exposure model I developed and publish weekly for the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) organization each week.

The idea is pretty straightforward. I allocate 60% of the model to trend and momentum indicators/models and 40% to sentiment and external factors. My goal is to blend both technical and fundamental indicators because, if I’ve learned one thing since 1980, it is that all strategies/indicators/models WILL go into a funk at times and/or stop working. Thus, I’ve learned that it is critical to avoid using a singular indicator to drive your exposure. As the saying goes, all indicators work great, right up until they don’t!

Therefore, I prefer to employ a “model of models” approach to build what I hope will provide me with a “weight of the evidence” for the overall health of the stock market.


View Model Online

To review, the game plan is to be invested more heavily in stocks when the “weight of the evidence” is positive and less so when the model reading suggests some caution.

Is the system perfect? Heck no. No matter how hard you try, Ms. Market will always find a way to trip you up at times. But to me, this approach makes sense as my goal is to get it “mostly right, most of the time.”

Currently, the market’s internal momentum had clearly stalled and the table was “set” for a pullback. The model sensed that all was not right in the indicator world and recommended that chips be taken off the table. From my seat, this is what “risk management” is all about.

A friend of mine uses this model with live money. He takes the model reading as his long equity exposure and puts the remainder in bonds on a weekly basis. As such, this week he’d have 40% in stocks and 60% in bonds. And for the record, the model’s exposure to equities was 75% at the end of July, 65% the week of August 6, and first went below 50% on August 13.

And I am pleased to report that since my NAAIM friend went live with this approach, it has outperformed a traditional 60/40 portfolio by a pretty sizable amount.

Thought For The Day:

When men speak of the future, the Gods laugh. -Chinese Proverbs

Current Market Drivers

We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

      1. The State of the Trump Administration/Policies

      2. The State of the Economic/Earnings Growth (Fast enough to justify valuations?)

      3. The State of Geopolitics

      4. The State of Fed Policy

Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

David D. Moenning
Chief Investment Officer
Sowell Management Services

Disclosure: At the time of publication, Mr. Moenning and/or Sowell Management Services held long positions in the following securities mentioned: none. Note that positions may change at any time.


Disclosures

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

David D. Moenning is an investment adviser representative of Sowell Management Services, a registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services, review the firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available by contacting Sowell. Sowell is not registered as a broker-dealer.

Employees and affiliates of Sowell may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Positions may change at any time.

Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

Advisory services are offered through Sowell Management Services.

Dave Moenning

One Of The Best Ways to Manage Risk Is…

Although stocks rebounded nicely Tuesday and the major indices appeared to regain their footing, we need to keep in mind that the August/September time frame tends to be tough sledding in the stock market. And with approximately 40% of the stocks in the S&P 500 down at least 10% from their highs, one can argue that we remain in correction/pullback mode.

The good news is that the S&P 500 opens on this fine Wednesday morning a mere 1.14% from the all-time high set early in the month. The point here is that while yesterday was fun, we need to accept that this corrective phase may not have ended just yet.

Sure, I can argue that the recent dance to the downside was just the type of pause that can refresh the bullish mood as some of the complacency was washed away. However, with Trump threatening to shut down the government unless he gets his wall built and the debt ceiling fast approaching, well, this may not be the best time to abandon a cautious stance.

Speaking of which, before I was consumed with the move, we were exploring a few different ways to manage risk in one’s portfolios. We first talked about what I will call the “BlackRock Method,” which entails utilizing a lower volatility approach in your equity exposure both here at home and overseas.

BlackRock’s research shows that utilizing “low vol” indices (the iShares Min Vol USA ETF – USMV – would be the poster child for this) is a great way to ride the market during bull cycles and to “lose less” during those nasty bear phases.

While I applaud BLK loudly for their public stance telling investors that managing risk is mission critical in the long run, I personally am concerned that the “low vol” space may have become overly popular during this specific bull market.

If you will recall, this has been one of the most hated bull markets in history due to the seemingly endless stream of crises (most of which stemmed from the PIIGS and the European banking system) that arose from 2009 forward. As such, a great many investors decided that if they were going to be invested in stocks, they would do so in a more conservative fashion. Enter the “low vol” and “high dividend” trade.

The problem, from my point of view, of course, is that this may have become a very crowded trade. As such, when the bears do come to call again (and trust me, they will at some point), these more conservative indices may not provide the downside protection they did in the past as everyone tries to flee from the same place.

It is important to recognize that no single investing strategy/methodology works during all market environments. And if you aren’t sick of hearing me preach this message, do yourself a favor and reread the prior sentence. Or better yet, write these words on a sticky note and spack it on your computer screen so that you can be reminded of this message before the opening bell rings each day. In short, I believe this is probably the most important lesson investors need to learn if they expect to succeed over the long-term.

Repeat after me… There is no Holy Grail of investing! Trust me, no matter how smart you, how many letters you have after your name, are or how hard you try, you will not discover the secret to getting every move in the stock market right. P.S. There is no “all weather” strategy that works all the time, either. So, please run far, far away, as quickly as you can, from anyone who suggests otherwise!

One risk management firm I spoke with recently suggested that their approach to capital preservation during market declines works in 4 out of 5 bear market environments. To me, this was very refreshing to hear because, in my experience, this concept is spot on – no matter what method you employ to manage risk, there will be an environment where the approach gets “fooled” and fails to fully do its job.

It is for this reason that I am a proponent of utilizing multiple strategies in order to create portfolios that are diversified in a modern fashion (i.e. diversification that goes beyond using multiple asset classes).

And this, dear readers, is, in and of itself, a very strong way to manage the risk of severe bear market declines. It’s simple, really. Don’t put all your risk management eggs in a single strategy/methodology basket. Instead, diversify by employing multiple risk management strategies in your portfolio.

Tomorrow, I’ll talk about another specific strategy, something I call the “exposure method.” After that, we’ll explore some other ideas such as trend-following, the use of Alts, and an oldie, but a goody, the 60/40 method.

Thought For The Day:

Go in the direction of your dreams. Live the life you’ve imagined. -Thoreau

Current Market Drivers

We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

      1. The State of the Trump Administration

      2. The State of the Economic/Earnings Growth (Fast enough to justify valuations?)

      3. The State of Geopolitics

      4. The State of Fed Policy

Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

David D. Moenning
Chief Investment Officer
Sowell Management Services

Disclosure: At the time of publication, Mr. Moenning and/or Sowell Management Services held long positions in the following securities mentioned: none. Note that positions may change at any time.


Disclosures

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

David D. Moenning is an investment adviser representative of Sowell Management Services, a registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services, review the firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available by contacting Sowell. Sowell is not registered as a broker-dealer.

Employees and affiliates of Sowell may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Positions may change at any time.

Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

Advisory services are offered through Sowell Management Services.

Dave Moenning

Playing The Game According To Conditions

For some time now, I’ve been summing up my big-picture take on the stock market by suggesting that (a) it’s a bull market until proven otherwise and (b) risk factors are elevated. To review, the primary risks I’m referencing are the valuation metrics, which, in general, are currently at historic levels – levels that in the past have only been seen prior to monster declines.

At the same time, I have opined that big-picture issues such as valuations “don’t matter until they do” (think of the “irrational exuberance” period from 1996 through March 2000). The key point is that valuation indicators are usually lousy timing vehicles and bull markets tend to last longer than investors can imagine. In other words, high valuations alone don’t cause bear markets, but rather are a factor in the degree of pain the ensuing bear, once it begins, inflicts on investors.

Put another way, my take on the current market is this is not a low-risk environment. And as I’ve been saying for some time now, investors should play the game accordingly.

On that note, I’ve received a couple of questions on the latter part of my stance lately. “Dave, what do you mean by the phrase, play the game accordingly?” I’ve been asked.

So, given that we’re in the dog days of summer and the DJIA has gone more than a year without a pullback of more than 3% (oh and by the way, volatility levels are also hovering near all-time lows), I thought I’d spend my time this morning “esplainin” what I mean…

The BlackRock Method: Win More By Losing Less

I recently wrote a piece reviewing what I will call the BlackRock approach to managing risk. Make no mistake about it; BlackRock is pounding the table about the idea of managing risk in investors’ portfolios. In the presentation I attended at the end of May, the speaker noted that “downside capture” (the percentage decline a fund experiences relative to the overall market during bearish periods) has been increasing steadily for many years and now sits at all-time highs. BlackRock further suggests the one of the keys to long-term outperformance isn’t beating the market on the upside during the good times but rather, losing less during the bad times. And this, dear readers, is what managing risk is all about.

Do the math, says the BlackRock gang. If you lose 50% during a bear market, you need a gain of 100% from the next bull in order for your account to recover. However, if you can find a way to lose less – say 25% – you only need a gain of 33% to get back to breakeven. And since Ned Davis Research tells us that the average bull market produces gains of 81%, well, the math is fairly straightforward here.

BlackRock’s approach to “losing less” is to incorporate investment vehicles intended to do just that – lose less during big, bad bear markets. The firm has found that so-called “low volatility” indices can get the job done by staying close to the market benchmarks during bull markets and then declining less when things get ugly. As such, BlackRock encourages the use of low volatility funds in the areas of domestic stocks, foreign stocks, emerging markets, and bonds.

To be sure, I applaud BlackRock for “coming out of the closet” on the idea of risk management in client portfolios. It is refreshing to hear one of the largest money managers on the planet endorsing the approach I’ve been using since the mid-1980’s.

Remember, generally speaking, most Wall Street firm tell us that it’s “time, not timing” that matters, to be long-term, and to never, ever take our money out of their funds – because managing risk can’t be done. So, to hear BlackRock publicly counter this silliness means that maybe, just maybe, fewer investors will see their “401K turn into a 201K” the next time the bears come to call.

However, I am concerned that the “low vol” space has become a “crowded trade” and therefore may not do the job if the bears show up in the near-term. Think about it. Although this bull market has produced stellar gains since March 9, 2009, it has been a very bumpy and at times, a very scary ride. Thus, I will argue that a great many investors returned to the market post crisis in a conservative fashion. In my opinion, this has helped push the low vol and high dividend paying stocks to valuation levels that exceed those of the overall market.

It is for this reason that I am a big proponent of diversification by methodology and investing strategy. Sure, low vol is certainly one approach to managing risk. But like anything else, a single approach may not work in all bear market environments. Therefore, employing multiple risk management strategies in a portfolio makes sense. Well, to me, anyway.

So, next time, I will explore three other approaches to “losing less” during the next big, bad bear market – an exposure-based approach, alts, and an oldie, but a goody: the 60/40 approach.

Publishing Note: My wife and I are closing on and moving into our new home next week. As such, I will publish reports as my time/energy level permits.

Thought For The Day:

Things turn out best for the people who make the best of the way things turn out. -John Wooden

Current Market Drivers

We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

      1. The State of the U.S. Economic Growth (Fast enough to justify valuations?)

      2. The State of Earnings Growth

      3. The State of Trump Administration Policies

      4. The State of Fed Policy

Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

David D. Moenning
Chief Investment Officer
Sowell Management Services

Disclosure: At the time of publication, Mr. Moenning and/or Sowell Management Services held long positions in the following securities mentioned: none. Note that positions may change at any time.


Disclosures

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

David D. Moenning is an investment adviser representative of Sowell Management Services, a registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services, review the firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available by contacting Sowell. Sowell is not registered as a broker-dealer.

Employees and affiliates of Sowell may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Positions may change at any time.

Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

Advisory services are offered through Sowell Management Services.

Dave Moenning

Wait, BlackRock Is Saying What?

With no fewer than three potential big, bad events (and a fourth – the FOMC meeting – on tap for next week), traders appear to be in wait-and-see mode at the present time. And since I do not believe in making predictions about what the news will be – or more importantly how Ms. Market is going to react to said news – I would like to spend our time this morning talking about the subject of managing risk in the stock market.

Long-time readers of my oftentimes meandering morning market missive know that I am a risk manager. I always have been. I always will be. My career was shaped in the early 1980’s by the likes the late Marty Zweig, Ned Davis, and Stan Weinstein. They taught me early on that one of the best ways to make money in the long run was to avoid losing a lot of money in the short-run. And while my approach has shifted over the years (I’m much more big-picture/long-term oriented these days) my overriding objective of investing hasn’t changed. In short, I strive to stay in tune with what the market is doing and to lose the least amount possible when the bears are in control on Wall Street.

To be sure, this hasn’t always been a popular approach. In the late 1990’s for example, the idea of managing risk was almost laughable as the secular bull was raging, 10-year returns in the high-teens were normal, and the mutual fund industry had convinced investors that the key to success was to simply buy and hold. “Time, not timing” was the battle cry and back then, investors and advisors alike were taught to be “long-term” in their approach.

However, what I’ve learned over my career is that advisors and clients alike tend to be long-term – as long as they are making money!

The bottom line is that after two of the most brutal bear markets in history occurred within a nine-year period, a great many investors have decided to rethink their approach. Gone is the notion that investors should just put their money in a mutual fund and leave it there – forever. Gone is the idea that managing risk is a fool’s game. And gone is the concept of just riding things out when the bears come to call at the corner of Broad and Wall.

“My 401K is Now a 201K”

No, investors distinctly remember the pain of their “401K’s turning into 201K’s” during the 2000-2008 period and they don’t want that to EVER happen again. Never mind the fact that the next bear market usually looks nothing like the last one. Today, investors want assurance that the destruction they witnessed in their accounts during the 2000-2002 and 2008 through March 2009 bear markets won’t happen again.

While I may be guilty of “talking my book” here, the idea of trying to “do something” (anything!) to prevent the vicious declines that can accompany bear markets sounds pretty darned appealing to most of the folks I talk to.

Ask yourself this question: If you have a choice, do you want to remain fully exposed to stock market risk during the next bear market decline?

For those that answered, “Sure, I’m long-term – I don’t look at my retirement accounts anyway,” feel free to stop reading now – and you can skip some of next week’s missives as well.

But for the rest of you, now might be an excellent time to think about your strategy for the next bear market.

To be clear, I’m not suggesting that a bear market is imminent. However, given that (a) the current economic recovery is now nine years old (and one of the weakest in the post-war era), (b) stock market valuations are very high from an historical perspective, and (c) this is now the second longest period in stock market history without a 20% correction, now might be a great time to put a plan to “lose less” during the next bear market.

Even BlackRock Agrees!

And much to my surprise, one of the biggest money managers on the planet – a little company called BlackRock – agrees with me.

Yep, that’s right. Unlike the 1990’s, when Wall Street told you to hang in there and not to even THINK about adjusting your portfolio during bearish environments, today BlackRock is encouraging investors to understand risk and to actually do something about it.

So… Next time (likely on Tuesday), we will review the presentation BlackRock made at our advisor conference – a presentation that encourages investors to “win more by losing less.” What a concept!

Publishing Note: I am traveling for the rest of this week and will not publish report on Friday.

Thought For The Day:

Do what you feel in your heart to be right – for you’ll be criticized anyway. -Eleanor Roosevelt

Current Market Drivers

We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).

      1. The State of the U.S. Economy

      2. The State of Earning Growth

      3. The State of Trump Administration Policies

Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

David D. Moenning
Chief Investment Officer
Sowell Management Services

Disclosure: At the time of publication, Mr. Moenning and/or Sowell Management Services held long positions in the following securities mentioned: none. Note that positions may change at any time.

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Disclosures

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.

Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

David D. Moenning is an investment adviser representative of Sowell Management Services, a registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services, review the firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available by contacting Sowell. Sowell is not registered as a broker-dealer.

Employees and affiliates of Sowell may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Positions may change at any time.

Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

Advisory services are offered through Sowell Management Services.